December 2014 Distressed Property Index Sits at 9.3%

The December Dane County Distressed Property Index was 9.3% – down from a value of 12.1% in December of 2013 – and down from the value of 9.4% from the previous month. The distressed property index continued to decrease in 2014 in line with a sharp drop in foreclosure filings.

Our data tracks back to January of 2006, when the index stood at 5%. Note from the graph below the index had grown steadily over time as Dane County foreclosure filings increased greatly, peaking in 2010.

How to interpret the index

The index measures the ratio of foreclosure filings to home and condo sales in Dane County over a 12 month time period. It approximates the percentage of distressed sales (those relating to foreclosure) in the Dane County housing market. For instance, a Distressed Property Index of 25% indicates approximately 25% of the current Dane County housing market involves distressed properties.

How the index is calculated

The index includes the following variables:

(A) The number of Dane County foreclosure filings that occurred during the 12 month period beginning 18 months prior to the current month. This timeframe is chosen because most foreclosure filings result in either a short sale, a sheriff’s sale, or a lender-owned sale – many of which do not occur until 6 to 18 months after the filing.

(B) The number of Dane County homes and condos sold via the South Central Wisconsin MLS during the previous 12 months.

(C) A factor for FSBO (for sale by owner) transactions. Dane County FSBO sales are roughly 15% of the volume from the South Central Wisconsin MLS.

Using the variables above, the Distressed Property Index is calculated as follows:

Distressed Property Index = (A)/(B*C)

The December 2014 Distressed Property Index includes the following variables:

(A) 749 Dane County foreclosure filings from July 2013 through June 2014

(B) 6,984 Dane County homes and condos sold via the South Central Wisconsin MLS during the prior 12 months.

(C) A FSBO sales factor of 1.15

DPI = (749)/(6,984 * 1.15) = .093